The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/31/07 For Jan 2006 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Chicago purchasers' index fell to 48.8 in January from 51.6 in December, showing a sharp 10 percentage point fall in new orders to 46.3 that points to slowing activity in the months ahead. Though up 1.9 percentage points, backlog orders also showed contraction at a sub-50 reading of 46.4. More respondents reported increases than decreases in production with the index at 53.2, but this sub-index will be especially sensitive to the ongoing trouble in orders.
Other readings included a sharp contraction in inventories to 41.9 from 48.9 in a welcome result that suggests Chicago businesses are adjusting quickly to slowing conditions. Prices paid showed little pressure at 54.9 vs. 56.9.
Treasuries firmed slightly in response to the data, which is likely to ease expectations for tomorrow's ISM report on the manufacturing side.
The NAPM-Chicago purchasing managers' index posted a moderate rise to 52.4 in December from 49.9 in November. This rebound was key to the markets revising their view that manufacturing might be headed for recession.
NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for January 07: 52.0
Range: 50.9 to 54.0
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The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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