<%@ Language=VBScript %> Econoday Report: NAPM-Chicago  31, 2007
NAPM-Chicago
Definition
The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care

Released on 8/31/07 For Aug 2007
Business Barometer Index - Level
 Actual 53.8  
 Consensus 53.0  
 Consensus Range 51.0  to  56.0  
 Previous 53.4  

Highlights
Growth held steady and moderate in the Chicago area according to the Chicago purchasers index which inched 4 tenths higher in August to 53.8. Low to mid 50 readings for the headline composite index as well as the report's sub-indexes indicate that slightly more purchasers in the area reported month-to-month growth than those reporting contraction. New orders, the most important of the sub-indexes, rose to 58.4 from 53.4, pointing to rising production in the months ahead. Production actually slowed a bit in August to 55.7 from a very strong 59.0 in July. One area of weakness is backlog orders which continued to show steep month-to-month contraction at 38.8 vs. July's 37.4. But the higher readings in new orders should boost backlogs in the months ahead.

Smooth supply chain readings are helping the area's businesses to work down backlogs. Snags in supplier deliveries eased in the month with the index down 3.4 points to 51.9. Inventories, at 44.6 vs. 55.1, were depleted in another reading consistent with the contraction in backlogs. Inventories will have to rebuilt in the months ahead to meet the rise in new orders, another plus in the report. Employment came back to 53.7 from an unusually high 61.6 in July that offers a reminder of this report's extreme volatility.

But the Chicago report did in fact predict slowdowns in the ISM reports for July, and today's readings will help firm expectations for steady and moderate ISM readings for August. The ISM manufacturing report will open the post Labor Day week at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday. The ISM non-manufacturing report will follow on Thursday. Markets showed no reaction to today's report which is coming ahead of Ben Bernanke's speech at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The NAPM-Chicago purchasing managers' index fell to 53.4 in July from 60.2 in June, pointing to an abrupt slowing in the rate of growth in the area's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. However, this index - with its small sample size - is notoriously volatile.

NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for August 07: 53.0
Range: 51.0 to 56.0
Trends
[Chart] The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/30 4/30 5/31 6/29 7/31 8/31 9/28 10/31 11/30 12/28
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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